The markets have risen over the past few weeks, but many strategists and economists think that this market does not have legs. While we have seen positive earnings, seemingly lower unemployment and a small improvement housing starts, we have a long way to go globally.
The troubles in Europe have not added a lot of volatility to the market over the last few weeks, but the same problems still persist. It seems probable that there will be some amount of default (probably in Greece first) based on the fact that the countries cannot cut their spending enough to reduce their debt levels.
The market has already priced this in with yields as high as 7 percent in Italy, which is very high for the debt of a sovereign country. Due to this pressure, many experts are predicting a European recession. The downgrades by S&P this week just added fuel to the fire. continue reading »